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Showing posts with label USDJPY. Show all posts
Showing posts with label USDJPY. Show all posts

Usdjpy

Selling at 102 (200ma on h4) / 78.6 fib

USDJPY Forecast and Trade Setup for the week 26th May, 2014

USDJPY Forecast and Trade Setup for the week 26th May, 2014


  • Possible Bearish Cypher?

Daily Chart


  • Last week we have seen a bullish Pin bar candle from an important Support level which had provided some bullish momentum
    • there was also a stochastics bullish divergence
    • Having said that, I do not like the fact that the support zone has been tested too many times and it does hint to me it will break the support as all the buy has been filled
  • we have the Ichimoku clouds and trendline in a strong resistance area which may limit the upside

Hourly Chart


  • Using Ichimoku study, on the H4 chart we are trading above the clouds suggesting of a bullish trend.
    • should take note that it only broke through a thin ichimoku clouds (which could give a false signal)
  • Currently we are flirting around the Support and Resistance zone and if we managed to bypass that to the upside then we may see it retest the 102.50 and which comes with a very strong resistance together with confluence of 88.6/50 fib and monthly pivots and weekly R1 pivots
    • If so, this could be a potential bearish cypher (sorry didn't illustrate the chart with the triangles)

Outlook Trade opportunity

Although last week we see a bullish pin bar Daily candle from major support, this support to me is very exhausted.  I would be bias to be on the short side of this pair.I would have a short order around the 102.50 and i also have a scalp trade just around the 102 figure due to a lower timeframe chart setup

Risk Level LOW


Tips -

Always take note of any economical news event on our provided calender below



USDJPY Trade filled - 15.05.14

USDJPY Trade filled - 15.05.14


Hi readers, got some time on my hands for me to upload this trade which got filled this morning during asian open


  • In conjunction with my analysis for UJ earlier this week, I identified bullish signals, therefore i have set my buy orders at high prob retrace fib number.
    • For this trade i am placing just above the 78.6 as i see a potential to the upside.
      • Note we did try to break above the 4hr Ichimoku clouds, then failed and this could be a market retest / false break the s/r before the some bullish movement.
      • My R:R is 1:1 - currently my order which got filled was nearly to the pip so didn't get any price movement against me. Will take out the risk when appropriate to secure my profits.
Good luck guys


Tips -

Always take note of any economical news event on our provided calender below



USDJPY Forecast and Trade Setup for the week 12th May, 2014

USDJPY Forecast and Trade Setup for the week 12th May, 2014


Daily Chart


  • On the Daily Chart we have seen continued support at around the 101 area where market rejected.



Hourly Chart


  • Price action gives us bullish signals
    • has shown that we have come out from the descending channel
    • rejection from 101.xx support
    • Possible false break from the ascending trendline (long term and the medium term trend line)
  • As we are trading near the bearish Clouds, It would be interesting to see what the market will react. however given the fact that Dollar Index is strong and as reflected on this USDJPY pair, it would be not surprising if we were to test the monthly pivot in the near term
  • Further along, I could see a potential towards the upside to test the 103 zone where a possible bearish bat pattern

Outlook Trade opportunity

Long - near term, up towards the monthly pivot perhaps
If monthly pivot breaks - i see it test the 103.xx before a possible short at at harmonic pattern.

Risk Level - LOW


Tips -

Always take note of any economical news event on our provided calender below



USDJPY Forecast and Trade setup for the week 22nd April, 2014

USDJPY Forecast and Trade setup for the week 22nd April, 2014


Weekly Chart

  • We are still stuck in a tight range for nearly 3 months now, however getting close to the ascending trendline, which could provide some support for some action
  • My bias still Bullish

Daily Chart


  • We had a continous bullish days last week, where we have broken slightly resistance,
    • Today's candle is showing some bearish price action, but this could be a retest of the breakout zone / retest support before continuation to the upside
  • Note there is the ichimoku clouds which could give some resistance
  • Bias is bullish since we have broken the descending trendline, and had retested the bottom and rejected also from an long term ascending trendline.

Hourly Chart


  • Although we have broken resistance, and trading majority in the s/r zone, I believe what is stopping the bullish momentum is the Monthly pivot, and confluence of the 50% fib and the clouds.
    • Having the strong resistance, it could be possible for price to pull back and reload again to the upside to break it.

Outlook Trade opportunity

If price pull back, could look at Price action candle bullish pattern at good fib levels / kumo clouds

Risk Level Med


Tips -

Always take note of any economical news event on our provided calender below



USDJPY Forecast for the week 14th of April 2014

USDJPY Forecast for the week 14th of April 2014


Weekly Chart


  • We have been trading between the 101-103 region for nearly two months now
  • Approaching the ascending trendline


Daily Chart


  • 101 level has been tested 4 times and if prices do test for the fifth time, I would be more bias for price to breach this level down to sub 100 level
  • 102.50 would be a level to look out for sellers to push the market back down
  • Ichimoku study seems to be in a bearish mode as the two lines are crossed also trading beneath the clouds


Hourly Chart

  • Ichimoku lines are squeezed and possibly indicating some bullish action if prices move up further, however upside could be limited from clouds trendlines and fib levels from last weeks sell off.

Outlook Trade opportunity

No trades identified

Risk Level __


Tips -

Always take note of any economical news event on our provided calender below



USDJPY Forecast and Setup for the week 8th April 2014

USDJPY Forecast and Setup for the week 8th April 2014

Weekly Chart


  • Last week Candle was a Shooting Star Pattern 
    • Cautious here because the Body of the candle is above previous body, which has a lower chance of a reversal candle




Daily Chart


  • We have had  Bearish run since Friday, however we are nearing support at around 102.700 which has 
    • Fib 50, 38.2 
    • Previous Resistance which now should hold as support
    • Outside return of an Descending Trendline which could be a retest of the break
    • Ichimoku Cloud and Kijun san line 
  • We also have a hidden stochastic positive divergence (possible)


Hourly Chart


  • Early Asian Session we continue to see sell off, however bound a good bounce from the monthly pivot / W S1 Pivot which also is a previous resistance, which becomes support
    • I would like a smaller push down towards 102.500-600 before attempting a long scalp
  • Stochastics on the H4 is at oversold still

Outlook Trade opportunity

If there is a lower push down, would look for PA bounce to go for a long.
Going for a long now is risky with the big bearish Candle (on the H1)
Note we have JPY data today

Risk Level - Medium


Tips -

Always take note of any economical news event on our provided calender below



USDJPY Level to watch today for a possible scalp? 18th, March, 2014

USDJPY Level to watch today for a possible scalp?


1 Hour Chart



Total of 3 x confluence / overlapping

Area to watch today is the Confluence levels of Weekly Pivot + fib 38.20 + Inverse of todays swing of 127.2 fib ext.

Also on the second chart, the same area is also the top of the kumo clouds which acts as resistance

Have drawn some predictions of possible stochs divergence.

Outlook Trade opportunity

Short Scalp

Risk Level LOW


Tips -

Always take note of any economical news event on our provided calender below



USDJPY Forecast for the week 17th March, 2014

USDJPY Forecast for the week 17th March, 2014


Weekly Chart


  • Last week's Candle action is pretty negative, however have closed the week pretty much eating all the gains from the previous week but not penetrating its lows
  • Lower body of the Weekly Candle is flat for the last three weeks showing respect the 50% retrace level support
  • Stochastics is rising 


Daily Chart

  • On the daily, it is easy to see that the current support level has been respected 4 times (including Last Fridays)
  • We have fallen back below the clouds
  • Be aware that Stochastics is performing a lower low, but the price did not perform a lower low (we have same lows)
  • My Bias is that the market could retrace to a fib 50 level / which is also where the clouds are



Hourly Chart



  • Both charts are H4 -

  • There are two obstacles to go through this week if market was to retrace back to fib 50/61.8 level where it is also where the Clouds are (more strength to act as resistance)
    • Weekly Pivot and Monthly pivot both is between the 23.6 and 36.2 level, , and if we look left, there is minor s/r there

Outlook Trade opportunity

Since Friday Night, I have a long on the USDJPY .
Please also consider the Correlation between the Nikkei (I have an analysis on that as well)

Risk Level Medium


Tips -

Always take note of any economical news event on our provided calender below



USDJPY Cypher scalp at support

USDJPY Cypher scalp at support




Outlook Trade opportunity

Potential to get long at 78.6 / cypher pattern.
Always know how to trade and know the rules for Profit targets 1 and 2 and beyond

Risk Level Medium to High


Tips -

Always take note of any economical news event on our provided calender below



Nikkei Possible Cypher / or some pause at least? - 14th March, 2014

Nikkei Possible Cypher / or some pause at least? - 14th March, 2014


H4 Chart




Outlook Trade opportunity

Possibly Looking for support confirmation on Yen FX pairs and go Long

Risk Level Medium / HIgh


Tips -

Always take note of any economical news event on our provided calender below



USDJPY Scalp Trade Setup for Monday 10th March, 2014

USDJPY Scalp Trade Setup for Monday 10th March, 2014


30min Chart



Outlook Trade opportunity

Identified a good confluence zone

  • - Monthly Pivot
  • Weekly Pivot
  • Daily Pivot
  • 38.20 Fib Retrace
  • 161.80 fib ext of initial retrace from Friday

I don't think it can get better than that for a scalp opportunity.

* Scalp requires experience, - don't be greedy is all i can say

Please visit my post on the best confirmation entry strategy for scalping

Tips -

Always take note of any economical news event on our provided calender below



USDJPY Forecast and trade setup for the week 10th March, 2014

USDJPY Forecast and trade setup for the week 10th March, 2014

Bearish Cypher and Bat Overlapping at the same PRZ 


Weekly Chart


Daily Chart


  • Stochastics is crossing at overbought area
  • Lots of resistance - Trendline, Clouds
  • On writing this blog, i could see a potential Bearish Cypher, however the PRZ is around 104. So if its gets there, i would most likely short it on PA confirmation


Hourly Chart


  • You see i have a Bat pattern drawn, which actually will be the same PRZ zone on the Cypher I mentioned on the Daily summary
  • The most recent Price action suggest we have topped , however support is also near

Outlook Trade opportunity

Hourly Chart and Daily Chart identified two Patterns (Cypher and Bat) at the same PRZ

Risk Level LOW


Tips -

Always take note of any economical news event on our provided calender below



USDJPY Forecast and Trade Setup for 3th March, 2014

USDJPY Forecast and Trade Setup for 3th March, 2014

Daily Chart

  • My marked area of Potential Reversal Zone (in blue) is a Fib ext of 200 from the first leg down from the highs
  • Look left, and you will see its also a previous resistance
  • Also a 61.8 Fib Retrace level

Hourly Chart


  • On the 4 hourly chart, i can identify a equal measured move, which falls right at my blue zone (PRZ zone)
  • Will take this trade as a longer term trade, stops will be wide

Outlook Trade opportunity

Please see Hourly Chart

Risk Level Medium


Tips -

Always take note of any economical news event on our provided calender below



USDJPY Trade Setup & Forecast for the week 17th Feb, 2014

USDJPY Trade Setup & Forecast for the week 17th Feb, 2014


Weekly Chart



Daily Chart


Hourly Chart


There is a few uncertainty with this pair, I have a Buy setup on the hourly chart, however traders need to becareful, as if it gets to that price, on the daily, price will break the clouds signalling a bearish trend, however it could be a false break. Having said that, the multiple exact confluence of fib levels is quite strong to give it a push.

Outlook Trade opportunity

Please see Hourly Chart

Risk Level Medium


Tips -

Always take note of any economical news event on our provided calender below



USDJPY Outlook & Trade Setup for the week 3rd - 7th February 2014

USDJPY Outlook & Trade Setup for the week 3rd - 7th February 2014

Monthly Chart

  • Rejection from the 61.8% retrace + Trendline
  • Negative divergence in stochastic


Weekly Chart


  • Last week candle is negative
  • We have a steep ascending trendline
  • Stochs should have divergence when support is found


Daily Chart


  • Daily candle closed the day lowest of the week
  • Please note to also look at ichimoku indicator on yen pairs, - you will see we are trading in the clouds,, and that the bottom of the clouds is where my blue buy zone is.  Also the lines are becoming horizontal which have higher chance for price to attract higher.


Hourly Chart


  • Buy setup as shown on chart


Outlook Trade opportunity

Long setup is shown on Hourly chart, - could wait for price action to confirm before entering or using pending buys. - Please note to take profits / partials when we get 2x reward to risk.

Risk Level Low


Tips -

Always take note of any economical news event on our provided calender below



USDJPY Trade setup taken partial profit + update of Chart



USDJPY Trade setup taken partial profit + update of Chart


Have taken partial profit as i've hit 1.5 reward to risk. Futher more please see h4 chart with good divergence showing further downside perhaps







USDJPY Trade setup 30th Jan, 2014

USDJPY Trade setup 30th Jan, 2014

Sell zone is approaching.

Will be shorting there with partial take profits when I have 1:1 - 1:1.5 then leave small portion to ride down to my anticipated level

Tips -

Always take note of any economical news event on our provided calender below



USDJPY Outlook and Trade setup 29th Jan, 2014- Midweek report

USDJPY Outlook and Trade setup 29th Jan, 2014- Midweek report


Daily Chart



  • Reason why i am using the Ichikumo indicator is that the yen pairs do respect this indicators more than any other currency.
  • As you can see on the daily, it has rejected the clouds , however the lines (you can say the moving average line) is acting as minor resistance for the meantime
  • Although the clouds have been rejected, we cannot ignore the fact that it looks bearish, and i would like this to reach my first level of support on my chart and go long. (note second level of resis, might not be reached)

Hourly Chart



  • On the hourly, if we get into my sell zone, i would be looking to do a 80% scalp and leave 20% trade and possibly ride into new lows (as mentioned in Daily Chart)




Outlook Trade opportunity

Please see hourly chart

Risk Level LOW


Tips -

Always take note of any economical news event on our provided calender below



USDJPY Forecast for the week 27th Jan, 2014

USDJPY Forecast for the week 27th Jan, 2014


Daily Chart


Last week my view was bullish due to the bullish engulfing candle formed, However we are clearly in a short term bearish run / correction.


  • Ascending trend line is near
  • On yen pairs, using ichikumo indicator is ideal, and if you put it on the daily chart, we are hitting the clouds / supports/ and the 101.300 approx is in the clouds
  • On the chart, there are two support levels to look for trades

4 Hourly Chart


Hourly Chart


  • After breaking support, We would be looking to sell on the retest which now is resistance.
  • The next level of support is drawn on the hourly where a possible bounce scalp is possible / also shown on 4hr chart

Outlook Trade opportunity

There are three possible trades
2 are shown on 4hr chart
2 are shown on 1hr chart, however one of the trades are a repeat of the 4hr chart

Risk Level - Medium


Tips -

Always take note of any economical news event on our provided calender below